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Observationally Constrained Projection of the Reduced Intensification of Climate Extremes in Central Asia from 0.5 ℃ Less Global Warming
彭冬冬
中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所
Arid Central Asia is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. Information on potential future changes in extreme climateevents in Central Asia is limited. In this study, the performances of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projectphase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climatological extremes in Central Asia are first evaluated, and a bias correction methodis employed to constrain future projections. The responses of extreme climate events over Central Asia to future warmingand, in particular, the impact of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming scenarios are then assessed based on the observationally constrainedprojections. During the twenty-first century, coldest night (TNn), coldest day (TXn), warmest night (TNx), warmestday (TXx), 1-day maximum precipitation (RX1 day), 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5 day), and precipitation intensity(SDII) in Central Asia would robustly increase at best estimated rates of 1.93 °C, 1.71 °C, 1.18 °C, 1.25 °C, 6.30%, 5.71%,and 4.99% per degree of global warming, respectively, under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Comparedwith the 2 °C warming scenario, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could reduce the intensification (relative to 1986–2005)of TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx, RX1 day, RX5 day, and SDII by 33%, 24%, 32%, 29%, 39%, 42%, and 53% from the best estimatesunder RCP8.5, respectively. The avoided intensification of TNn, TNx, TXn and TXx (RX1 day and SDII) would be larger(smaller) under RCP4.5. This suggests that a low warming target is necessary for avoiding the dangerous risk of extremesin this arid region.