返回
过去30 年热带平流层臭氧的变化
谢飞
北京师范大学
In this work we investigate interannual variations in lower stratospheric ozone from 1984 to 2016 based on a satellite-derived dataset and simulations from a chemical transport model. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of ozone variations between 2000 and 2016 indicates that the first, second, and third EOF modes are related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), canonical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ENSO Modoki events, respectively; these three leading EOFs capture nearly 80% of the variance. However, for the period 1984–2000, the first, second, and third modes are related to the QBO, ENSO Modoki, and canonical ENSO events, respectively. The explained variance of the second mode in relation to ENSO Modoki is nearly twice that of the third mode for canonical ENSO. Since the frequency of ENSO Modoki events was higher from 1984 to 2000 than after 2000, the Brewer–Dobson circulation anomalies related to ENSO Modoki were stronger during 1984–2000, which caused ENSO Modoki events to have a greater effect on lower stratospheric ozone before 2000 than after. Ozone anomalies associated with QBO, ENSO Modoki, and canonical ENSO events are largely caused by dynamic processes, and the effect of chemical processes on ozone anomalies is opposite to that of dynamic processes. Ozone anomalies related to dynamic processes are 3–4 times greater than those related to chemical processes.